Point spreads are fundamental aspects of sports betting, but not all sports have points. If someone in the stands for a baseball game shouts, “Come on, Dodgers, we need some points this inning!” a bunch of people in the crowd would turn and give that person a weird look.
Baseball still has spreads but calling them a point spread would be incorrect. Instead, spreads in baseball are referred to as the runline. As with any spread, the runline is a bet that requires a team to win by a certain margin or lose by less than a certain margin.
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A bet on the Royals -1.5 means the Royals would have to win the game by two runs or more for the bet to win. If the Royals win 7-6, the bet loses. The team with the negative number after their name on a runline (favorite) has to win by more than that number for the bet to win. The team with the plus number after the name (underdog) on a runline has to win or lose by less than that number for the bet to win.
The runline is not to be confused with moneyline bets, which keep that name in baseball. As in every sport, the moneyline bet is a bet on the winning team regardless of the score. The runline is baseball’s version of a point spread. The runline will just be displayed as “spread” to avoid erroneous terminology across sports in many cases. That’s also a shorter name, which fits better on a phone screen.
Baseball isn’t a high-scoring sport like basketball or football, so the runline works very differently from point spreads in those sports. For one, the variety in the lines is much smaller. Less scoring means fewer final score possibilities and a smaller variance in outcomes.
Runlines will frequently be either 1.0 or 1.5 runs. It’s always possible to get an alternate line with different odds, but the standard runline usually stays in that range.
Another difference with runlines compared to point spreads in basketball or football is that the odds play a bigger role in the value of the bet. Sportsbooks often try to match the odds on both sides of a point spread, but because the lines are often set at 1.0 or 1.5 runs, the odds will vary.
Here’s a sampling of runlines from games on May 4, 2021:
Braves at Nationals
Braves -1.0 (-106)
Nationals +1.0 (-122)
Tigers at Red Sox
Tigers +1.5 (-134)
Red Sox -1.5 (+106)
Rangers at Twins
Rangers +1.0 (+100)
Twins -1.0 (-120)
Dodgers at Cubs
Dodgers -1.5 (-130)
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Cubs +1.5 (+104)
The Dodgers were viewed as a juggernaut and are the biggest favorite of the bunch. 1.5 runs favor them, and even with that extra half run against them, the odds are still -130. On top of that, this game is part of a doubleheader, so it was a 7-inning game, giving the Dodgers less time to pull away.
1.5 runs also favor the Red Sox, but the odds are very different. The Tigers +1.5 runs bet is -134, which means the Tigers winning or losing by only one run is viewed as more likely than the Red Sox winning by two runs or more. This means, for this line, the Red Sox were favored by enough to move the line to 1.5 runs, but just barely.
The other two games are more balanced. A run favors the Twins and Braves, but the Twins are a bigger favorite at -120.
Somewhat unrelated, but an important concept to understand is that the sportsbook is taking a bigger cut in the Braves-Nationals game. The Rangers are even money, which is better odds than the Braves at -106. The Twins are -120, which is slightly better odds than the Nationals at -122. This showcases the wide variety of odds used in runline bets.
Alternate runlines
If you don’t want the Red Sox -1.5 but are willing to take them at -1 at the payout cost, check out the alternate lines. The Red Sox at -1.0 comes in at -137 odds. These odds are barely lower-paying than the default line for the Tigers (+1.5 at -134) from that same game. That shows how close the regular line is to being -1.
There are several alternate lines offered for every game. You could also get the Red Sox -3 runs at +230 odds in this one, for example.
Runline vs. moneyline
Moneyline bets are more popular in baseball because most people don’t go into a baseball game saying, “I think the Angels are going to lose by one today.” It’s easier to pick the winner and stick to moneyline bets.
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The tradeoff between a spread and moneyline is the odds. Going back to the Red Sox-Tigers game from above, the moneyline has the Red Sox at -190 and the Tigers at +160. Ignoring alternate lines for simplicity in this example, the options are the Red Sox moneyline at -190 or the Red Sox to win by -1.5 at +106. With odds of -190, the Red Sox moneyline bet would only return $5.26 on a $10 bet. That risk-reward might not be enticing to many bettors. That’s the appeal of the runline.
The runline bet of the Red Sox -1.5 has positive odds (+106), which means the potential profit is more than the wager. It’s a tougher bet for the Red Sox to have to win by two or more runs, but those odds are more appealing.
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